Turnout was heavy on the single biggest day in presidential nominating history. Sen. Obama of Illinois entered "Super Tuesday" with momentum as a clutch of national and state polls showed him eroding or even erasing Sen. Clinton's longtime lead. But she was buoyed Tuesday by support from women, who make up roughly six of 10 voters in Democrats' primaries and caucuses. And she appeared to maintain her dominance among Latino voters, despite an intensive last-minute push by Sen. Obama and prominent supporters to peel them away.
Arizona's Sen. McCain, meanwhile, was strongest among independents and moderate Republicans, leaving him at a disadvantage in the late-voting grand-prize state for delegates, California, where the Republican primary was only open to Republicans. Mr. McCain was racking up delegates in winner-take-all states in the East last night -- though he remained well short of the 1,191 needed for the nomination.
On the Democratic side, the delegate tally was far from clear, given the party's rules that require states to allocate delegates in proportion to each candidate's vote statewide and in congressional districts. Adding a further twist, the states' formulas vary.
The 24 states with contests yesterday covered every region. In 19 states, both parties were holding primaries or caucuses. In three others, Democrats alone were caucusing, and in two more, only Republicans were having
caucuses.
Democrats in both camps were expecting something of a draw, and braced for weeks of more battling between the two senators. Several races later this month favor Mr. Obama, raising the stakes in yesterday's contests for Mrs. Clinton. Already both have started campaigning in Ohio, which has party primaries March 4, in anticipation that the Democratic contest would last at least that long.
For Republicans, the prospect that Mr. McCain could wrap up the nomination
had Mr. Romney -- allied with a host of conservative talk-show celebrities -- intensifying a fight for what the Romney side calls "the heart and soul" of the party.
Early results held few surprises. One encouraging win for Sen. Clinton came
in Massachusetts. She was victorious despite Sen. Obama's high-profile
support from Sen. Edward Kennedy and other members of the Kennedy clan. Sen.
Obama also won endorsements from Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Democrats'
2004 presidential nominee, and the state's governor, Deval Patrick.
Sens. Clinton and Obama easily won their home states of New York and
Illinois, respectively. Those states held the second- and third-largest
baskets of delegates on the Democratic side. Sen. Obama won a symbolic
victory in Connecticut, taking a state next door to Sen. Clinton's New York
that she had once counted on. He also took Delaware.
And Sen. Obama won big in Georgia and Alabama, on the strength of his appeal
in states with a significant black population. But Sen. Clinton won in
another Southern state, Tennessee, which has fewer black voters than others
in the region. She also won in her former home state, Arkansas, and in
Oklahoma.
In three small states that held Democratic caucuses rather than primaries --
Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota -- Sen. Obama won as expected. The
victories rewarded his campaign's emphasis on the grass-roots organization
necessary to get out the vote for caucuses, and his appeal to young
volunteers who help staff them.
In coveted California, the contests in both parties remained close late into
the evening, especially on the Republican side, exit polls showed. Mr.
Romney abruptly scheduled a primary-day visit to California, sensing that he
was gaining on Mr. McCain in a state where only Republicans could vote.
As in January's early-state contests, turnout appeared to be setting records
for primaries and caucuses, especially on the Democratic side. Democrats say
the energy and excitement on their side suggests a big advantage looking
ahead to the general election in November.
Mr. Romney won in his home state of Massachusetts, where he had been a
one-term governor, despite a last-minute visit by Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain
pocketed scores more convention delegates with victories in New York,
Connecticut and New Jersey -- all states that former candidate Rudy Giuliani
once banked on winning -- and in Delaware. All four states award all
delegates to the winner. Sen. McCain also won Illinois, which has a large
delegate pool but doesn't award them all to the winner.
Mr. Huckabee, won the state he once governed, Arkansas. He also won Alabama
and West Virginia, and was neck-and-neck in Georgia with Messrs. McCain and
Romney. While Mr. Huckabee is given little chance of being nominated, his
early wins yesterday reflected his appeal to fellow evangelical
conservatives who were a big majority of the Republican vote there.
That frustrated Mr. Romney, who had called on Mr. Huckabee in recent days to
quit the race so he could battle Sen. McCain one-on-one in a
conservative-vs.-moderate showdown. Mr. Romney, despite a socially liberal
record in Massachusetts, has tried to establish himself as the conservative
most in the Ronald Reagan mold, and hoped for a two-man race against Mr.
McCain, who is anathema to many conservative Republicans for his moderate
and maverick record.
Mr. Huckabee angrily dismissed Mr. Romney's call, and he got revenge of
sorts with his victories -- particularly in West Virginia, where Mr. Romney
had hoped for victory with a last-minute visit to the state.
Early results and exit polls showed Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher,
splitting the conservative Republican vote with Mr. Romney, giving Mr.
McCain -- the choice of moderates and Republican-leaning independents -- an
edge in many states.
The bitterness of the Romney-McCain fight in recent days, as Mr. Romney
intensified his attacks amid a growing perception of Mr. McCain as the
inevitable nominee, has potential longer-term ramifications for their
already splintered party beyond the nomination fight. On Mr. Romney's side
are some of the best-known conservative talk-show hosts in the nation,
including Rush Limbaugh. In recent days they have aired increasingly
personal attacks against Mr. McCain, even threatening not to vote if he
becomes the nominee.
Many Republican strategists and leaders nationwide expected Mr. McCain to
become the party's presumptive nominee by the time delegates are tallied,
probably today. Especially if the Democrats' fight drags on into March or
April, the early Republican decision normally would mean a big advantage for
Mr. McCain. He could effectively turn his attention toward the November
election and move to the political center to attract independents' votes.
Instead, yesterday's blistering back-and-forth between Mr. McCain on the one
side and Mr. Romney and his broadcast allies on the other indicated that the
Arizona senator -- should he become the nominee -- will have to spend time
repairing relations with conservatives.
The Republican fires were stoked further with the results from the first
state nominating contest in West Virginia. State Republicans, at a midday
convention, voted on a second ballot to award most of their 30 delegates to
Mr. Huckabee -- provoking cries of foul from Romney forces.
Mr. Romney won the first West Virginia vote, but fell short of the necessary
majority. On the next ballot, McCain supporters defected to Mr. Huckabee to
deny victory to Mr. Romney. The Romney campaign accused Sen. McCain of "a
back-room deal" typical of Washington insiders, in keeping with former Mr.
Romney's positioning of himself as an outsider who will change politics in
the capital.
Meanwhile, Mr. Romney's broadcast allies stepped up their air war against
Sen. McCain. Mr. Limbaugh, on his nationally syndicated show yesterday,
condemned the senator for a "disgraceful " and "dirty little trick" in
releasing what the host said was a private letter to him from Robert Dole,
the 1996 Republican presidential nominee, on Mr. McCain's behalf. In the
letter, Mr. Dole invoked Mr. McCain's years as a Vietnam prisoner-of-war and
vouched for Mr. McCain's conservatism. "Whoever wins the Republican
nomination will need your enthusiastic support," Mr. Dole wrote Mr.
Limbaugh. "Two terms for the Clintons are enough."
Earlier, Mr. Romney had said on the Fox network that Mr. Dole is "probably
the last person I would have wanted to write a letter for me," and suggested
Mr. McCain's nomination would be as unsuccessful for the party as Mr. Dole's
was in 1996, against then-President Bill Clinton. In turn, Mr. McCain
demanded Mr. Romney apologize to Mr. Dole, Mr. Romney sought to clarify his
remark, and Mr. Limbaugh then came to Mr. Romney's defense.
Separately, anti-McCain broadcaster Laura Ingraham, on her radio show
yesterday, read a statement from influential conservative evangelist James
Dobson. Mr. Dobson ticked off where he believed Mr. McCain had compromised
with Democrats on social and economic issues, and concluded, "I cannot, and
I will not vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience."
McCain advisers, and the many Republican establishment figures who have
endorsed Mr. McCain since his string of primary victories in New Hampshire,
South Carolina and Florida, contend that conservatives would vote for him in
November rather than see a Democrat, particularly Mrs. Clinton, take the
White House.
Among Republican voters, the biggest divides were among ideological lines,
according to exit polls in 16 states. Sen. McCain did best among those who
called themselves moderates and liberals, while Mr. Romney generally drew
more voters among those who called themselves conservative or very
conservative.
On the Democratic side, exit polls in key states showed the racial, gender
and generational divisions between the two senators' supporters that were
evident in the early state contests last month. Yesterday, however, more
states with significant populations of Latino voters were up for grabs, and
Sen. Clinton seemed to dominate among those voters as she had counted on --
despite a strong effort from Sen. Obama, with an assist from Sen. Kennedy,
who is popular among with Hispanic voters for, among other things, his
leadership in promoting new immigration laws easing their path to
citizenship.
Sen. Clinton also enjoyed a strong majority of the vote among white women.
Sen. Obama continued to get wide majorities of the African-American vote,
and majorities of voters under 40. Sen. Clinton drew support, as usual, from
voters older than 60.
Sen. Obama entered the brief, coast-to-coast Super Tuesday campaign with
momentum from his landslide victory in South Carolina's primary late last
month. Especially compared to the Republicans, the arguments between him and
Sen. Clinton were toned down after the divisive, heated rhetoric of the
South Carolina campaign.
Their scars from South Carolina didn't seem to carry over to Democratic
voters. In California, three-quarters of voters said they would be satisfied
with either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama as the nominee. Exit polls did
suggest that more Democratic voters blame Sen. Clinton for the recent
negativism than they blame Sen. Obama.
from http://www.wsj.com
